(Edited to include the Phil wins but predictions were not modified)
Before the official nominations for the 2nd annual PFA Golden Dolphins are announced in the coming days, I decided to try to predict them based on the precursors. Feel free to put in your own predictions/thoughts.
Best Picture:
The Wrestler = J Dr Do P
Milk = J Do P C
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button = J Dr P C
Tropic Thunder = Dr Do C
Baghead = J P
The Dark Knight = J P
Doubt = Dr C
Slumdog Millionaire = Do
Synecdoche, NY = Dr
Changeling = Do
The Reader = C
Drew's Thoughts: Button/Milk/Wrestler are locked with 4/5 precursor noms each. Tropic Thunder is in good position with 3 noms. The fifth spot looks like it'll be Doubt vs. either Baghead or The Dark Knight not sure which. The recent Colleen win is huge for Doubt's chances though.
PREDIX
Ben Button
Wrestler
Milk
Tropic Thunder
Doubt
Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky – The Wrestler = J Dr Do P C
Ben Stiller – Tropic Thunder = J Dr Do C
David Fincher – The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button = J Dr P C
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight = J Dr P
Gus Van Sant – Milk = J Do P
Tarsem Singh – The Fall = Dr C
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire = Do
Clint Eastwood – Changeling = Do
Ron Howard – Frost P
John Patrick Shanley – Doubt = C
Drew's Thoughts: Aronofsky is obviously the frontrunner with a win at the Joes and unanimous nominations. Fincher and Stiller are probably solid as well with 4/5. The last two spots will go to Nolan, Van Sant or Singh. I'm not sure if Van Sant will have enough high votes to get in though so I'm gonna predict Nolan and Singh cause of their more enthusiastic supporters.
PREDIX
Wrestler
Ben Button
Tropic
TDK
Fall
Best Actor:
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler = J Dr Do P C
Sean Penn – Milk = J Dr Do P C
Sam Rockwell – Snow Angels= Dr Do C
Brad Pitt – Ben Button= Dr P C
Benicio Del Toro – Che= Dr P
Steve Zissis – Baghead = J P
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder = J
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Synchedoche, New York = J
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon= Do
Leonardo Dicaprio – Revolutionary Road = Do
Michael Fassbender – Hunger = C
Drew's Thoughts: I'm guessin Rourke, Penn, Pitt, Rockwell have enough support to get in because they are obviously the top lead male performances of the year. It looks like it's a face off between Zissis (ridiculous...) and Del Toro for the top spot. I'll be pessimistic with my predictions...
PREDIX
Milk
Wrestler
Snow Angels
Ben Button
Baghead
Best Actress:
Melissa Leo – Frozen River = J Dr Do P C
Meryl Streep – Doubt = J Dr Do P C
Sally Hawkins – Happy Go Lucky = J Dr P C
Angelina Jolie – Changeling = J Dr Do
Kate Winslet – The Reader = Do P
Kate Beckinsale – Snow Angels = J P
Cate Blanchett – Ben Button = Dr C
Catinca Untaru – The Fall = Do C
Drew's Thoughts: At this point Streep (deservedly) has the Dolphin in the bag I think. Leo is locked for a nom obviously. Hawkins as well. Angelina probably too but she may be superceded by both Blanchett and Untaru. I really liked Blanchett but I might be the only one unfortunately.
PREDIX
Doubt
Froze Riv
Happy
Changeling
Fall
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight = J Dr Do P C
Brad Pitt – Burn After Reading = J Dr Do P C
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt = J Dr P C
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder = Dr Do C
Tom Cruise – Tropic Thunder = J P
James Franco – Milk = Do
Josh Brolin – Milk = Dr
Anil Kapoor – Slumdog
Haaz Sleiman – The Visitor = Do
Nicky Katt – Snow Angels = J
Eddie Marsan – Happy Go Lucky = C
Drew's Thoughts: Ledger and Pitt are obviously locked. Phil Hoffman is in too, as is Downey. So it comes down to Cruise versus Franco (who was just thrust into the race with the Donna win). It's tough to get in with only one person behind you but maybe Franco can do it.
PREDIX
Doubt
TDK
Burn
Tropic
Tropic
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams – Doubt = J Dr P C
Frances McDormand – Burn= Dr Do P C
Viola Davis – Doubt= Dr Do P C
Kate Winslet – The Reader = J Dr C
Samantha Morton – Synchdoche, New York = J Do C
Marisa Tomei – Wrestler= Do P
Taraji P. Henson - Ben Button= Do P
Hope Davis – Synecdoche, NY= Dr
Kristin Davis – Sex and The City = J
Misty Upham – Frozen River = J
Drew's Thoughts: My prediction for Supp actress hasn't changed for months. I'm pretty confident in it. Though, if Tomei picks up a win at the Phils I think Morton (or Winslet because of the vote split) may be out.
PREDIX
Doubt
Doubt
Reader
Burn
Synec
Best Original Screenplay:
Milk = J Dr Do P C
Tropic Thunder = J Dr P C
The Wrestler = J Dr Do P
Baghead = J Do P
Synechodoche, New York = J Dr C
Happy Go Lucky= P C
Burn= Dr
Changeling= Do
Visitor= Do
RocknRolla = C
Drew's Thoughts: I think my predictions are solid on this one. I don't see Happy-Go-Lucky getting in unless a win at the Phils happens.
PREDIX
Tropic Thunder
Synecdoche
Wrestler
Milk
Baghead
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button = J Dr Do P C
Doubt = J Dr P C
Frost/Nixon = J Do P
Snow Angels = J Dr C
The Fall= Dr Do C
The Reader= Dr Do C
The Dark Knight = J P
Slumdog= Do
Che= P
Drew's Thoughts: This is a tricky one to predict. Doubt and Button are the only locks here. Dark Knight despite only two previous noms is dangerous with the Joes win. I think it is possible it can overcome some of the thrice nominated films. Reader got a pic nom. Fall got a couple director noms. Which may indicate support. Maybe just cause I like Snow Angels I think its getting in and maybe cause I don't like Frost much I don't think its getting in. There's only room for one alpine themed title. I have a feeling this could come to a tie breaker.
PREDIX
Doubt
Button
Snow Angels
TDK
The Reader
Best Cinematography:
The Fall = J Dr Do P C
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button = J Dr P
Doubt= Dr P C
The Wrestler = J P
The Dark Knight = J P
The Reader= Do C
RocknRolla= Dr C
Slumdog= Do C
Revolutionary Road = J
Il Divo= Dr
Milk= Do
Tropic Thunder= Do
Drew's Thoughts: Probably the most hotly contested category of the year. I think Fall is the frontrunner and Button and Doubt are locked for nominations. I think the year is so de-centralized Rev Road with its sole win stands a chance. Dark Knight has a valid chance but I'm gonna predict three Deakins noms for the hell of it.
PREDIX
The Fall
Button
Doubt
Revolutionary Road
The Reader
Best Editing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button = J Dr Do P C
The Wrestler = J Dr Do P
Tropic Thunder = J Do P C
The Dark Knight = J P
Milk = Dr P
Doubt = Dr C
Revolutionary Road = J
Il Divo = Dr
The Fall = Do
Slumdog = Do
RocknRolla = C
Hunger = C
Drew's thoughts: I'm pretty confident about this lineup. Milk doesn't have enough support in this category.
PREDIX
Button
Wrestler
Tropic Thunder
Dark Knight
Doubt
Best Art Direction:
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button = J Dr P C
Tropic Thunder= Dr Do P C
The Fall = J Dr C
Synechdoche, New York = J Dr C
Changeling = J Dr Do
The Wrestler = J Do
Slumdog= Do P
Milk= Do
Dark Knight= P
Hunger = C
Drew's thoughts: The Slumdog win might jump it ahead of Changeling but I'm not sure if that will happen. I need a no guts no glory pick in here somewhere, so I'm predicting Slumdog will show up at the Dolphins and it'll be here.
PREDIX
The Fall
Synecdoche
Button
Tropic
Slumdog
Best Costume:
Debi Hopper – Changeling = J Dr Do
Amy Westcott – The Wrestler = J Do C
The Fall= Dr Do C
Benjamin Button= Dr P C
Lindy Hemming – The Dark Knight = J P
Marlene Stewart – Tropic Thunder = J P
Doubt= Dr C
Melissa Toth – Synecdoche New York = J
Miss Pettigrew= Dr
Slumdog= Do
Milk= Do
Rev Road= P
Happy Go Lucky= P
Sex in the City = C
Drew's Thoughts: This is a difficult one. I'm going with Wrestler and Doubt after consulting my gut.
PREDIX
Changeling
Ben Button
Fall
Wrestler
Doubt
Best Makeup:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button = J Dr Do P C
Tropic Thunder = Dr Do P C
The Dark Knight = J Dr P C
Synechdoce, New York = J
Wrestler= Do
Drew's Thoughts: No surprises here.
PREDIX
Button
Tropic Thunder
Dark Knight
Best Sound:
Best Sound Mixing:
The Dark Knight = J Dr Do P C
Tropic Thunder = J Dr Do P C
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button = J Dr Do P
The Wrestler = J Dr Do
Che = J P
Hunger = Dr C
Slumdog = Do
Defiance = P
Doubt = C
RocknRolla = C
Best Sound Editing:
Che = J Dr P
The Dark Knight = J Dr P
Tropic Thunder = J P
Ben Button = Dr P
Hunger = Dr
Wrestler = Dr
Defiance = P
Drew's Thoughts: This is interesting cause the last slot is a duel to the death between arthouse biopics of "revolutionaries." I'm picking Hunger over Che cause I'd rather go to Ireland than Cuba. Though its possible they could both overcome the other arthouse contender, The Wrestler.
PREDIX
Tropic
Wrestler
Dark Knight
Ben Button
Hunger
Best Score:
The Dark Knight = J Dr P
Burn After Reading = J Dr C
Ben Button = Dr P C
Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of The Crystal Skull = J P
Cassandra's Dream = Dr C
Milk= Do P
Synechdoche, New York = J C
Clint Mansell – The Wrestler = J
Death Defying Acts = Dr
Visitor = Do
Tropic Thunder= Do
Doubt= Do
Changeling= Do
Defiance = P
Drew's Thoughts: Cutthroat category. I'm coming to terms that Indiana Jones 4 will be nominated for a Dolphin, I pray it doesn't win though. A surprise is certainly possible here, The Visitor is probably the best chance of that.
PREDIX
TDK
Burn
Cassandra's Dream
ID4
Button
Sunday, February 1, 2009
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