Drew's Dolphin nomination predictions

I did some "analysis" yesterday tallying up the personal awards in an attempt to predict what some of these crazy Dolphin nominations will look like this year. We've already seen the Joes (I probably should be tweaking my predix but whatever) but I wanted to post this before I crack open the ballots and start tallying.

Best Picture
Moon - Drews, Joes, Colleens, Donnas
In the Loop - Drews, Colleens, Donnas
The Hurt Locker - Joes, Colleens, Donnas
A Serious Man - Drews, Joes
Bright Star - Drews, Colleens
Where the Wild Things Are - Drews
Fantastic Mr. Fox - Joes
The Informant! - Joes
Flame & Citron - Colleens
The White Ribbon - Donnas
Mary and Max - Donnas

We've got an interesting slate of Best Picture hopefuls this year, not a bad apple in the bunch. Moon has all but secured it's spot as the frontrunner being the only film grab spots at everyone's awards. Both In the Loop and The Hurt Locker and appear to have a strong amount of support as well. All three of those are good position for the Dolphin nom. A Serious Man and Bright Star both garnered two noms but their chances aren't as stable. A surprise win from any of the other best picture hopefuls could catapult them into the final five.

Best Director
Duncan Jones - Moon - Drews, Joes, Donnas
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker - Drews, Colleens, Donnas
Spike Jonze - Where the Wild Things Are - Drews, Joes
Steven Soderbergh - The Informant! - Drews, Joes
Jane Campion - Bright Star - Drews, Colleens
Armando Iannucci - In the Loop - Colleens, Donnas
Wes Anderson – Fantastic Mr. Fox - Joes
Ethan and Joel Coen – A Serious Man - Joes
Jacques Audiard - A Prophet - Colleens
Ole Christian Madsen—Flame & Citron - Colleens
Michael Haneke - The White Ribbon - Donnas
Adam Elliott - Mary and Max - Donnas

Duncan Jones and Kathryn Bigelow each secured three nominations so the Dolphins could be a showdown between those two. Of the four directors to receive two nominations I think Spike Jonze and Jane Campion might stand a better chance since their films ended up being love it or hate it types. Getting a couple high votes is a lot more important a lot of low votes. From there it seems Soderbergh and Iannucci might be dueling for last spot but a surprise win from someone (Ole Christian Madsen maybe?) would overtake both of them easily.

Best Actor
Sam Rockwell - Moon - Drews, Joes, Colleens, Donnas
Matt Damon - The Informant! - Drews, Joes
Tom Hardy - Bronson - Drews, Colleens
Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man - Drews, Donnas
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart - Drews, Joes
Tahar Rahim - A Prophet - Colleens, Donnas
Michael Sheen – The Damned United - Joes, Donnas
Edgar Flores - Sin Nombre - Colleens, Donnas
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker - Joes
Thure Lindhardt - Flame and Citron - Colleens

To my surprise, Best Actor has turned into the most heated race of all. Other than Rockwell scoring noms with everyone like his film did, second place (and 3rd, 4th, 5th for that matter) is a tie between 7 actors. It's going to end up with the actors with the strongest bases taking the 4 spots. I feel like Damon, Stuhlbarg and maybe Hardy could all get in though I think we're going to see at least one if not two of Donna's remaining picks earn spots as well. I don't have much idea how this will turn out.

Best Actress
Katie Jarvis - Fish Tank - Drews, Joes, Colleens
Penelope Cruz - Broken Embraces - Drews, Joes, Colleens
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious - Drews, Colleens, Donnas
Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia - Joes, Colleens, Donnas
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star - Drews, Colleens
Audrey Tautou – Coco Before Chanel - Joes, Donnas
Charlotte Gainsbourg - Antichrist - Drews, Joes
Carey Mulligan - An Education - Donnas

Barring a surprise win from Carey Mulligan or Audrey Tautou at the Donnas, I'm pretty confident we'll be seeing Jarvis, Cruz, Streep, Cornish and Sidibe at the Dolphins.

Best Supporting Actor
Peter Capaldi - In the Loop - Drews, Joes, Colleens, Donnas
Tom Hollander - In the Loop - Drews, Colleens, Donnas
Paul Schneider - Bright Star - Drews, Joes, Colleens
Anthony Mackie – The Hurt Locker - Joes, Donnas
Paul Higgins - In the Loop - Drews
David Rasche - In the Loop - Drews
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger - Joes
Brad Pitt – Inglorious Bastards - Joes
Michael Fassbender - Fish Tank - Colleens
Mads Mikkelson - Flame & Citron - Colleens
Alfred Molina - An Education - Donnas
Stanley Tucci - Julie & Julia - Donnas

Capaldi confirmed himself as the front runner at the Donnas today and Schneider and Hollander look solid as well. From there it's a bit of a crapshoot, Mackie is in surprisingly good position for a nom but I think we could see Fassbender and/or Harrelson enter into the five based on the love of Colleen and Joe respectively. You never know what Donna has up here sleeve either.

Best Supporting Actress
Mimi Kennedy - In the Loop - Drews, Joes, Colleens
Leonie Benesch - The White Ribbon - Drews, Colleens, Donnas
Melanie Lynskey – The Informant! - Joes, Colleens
Gina McKee - In the Loop - Drews, Donnas
Edie Martin - Bright Star - Drews
Catherine O'Hara - Away We Go - Drews
Jennifer Connelly– Creation - Joes
Marcia Gay Hayden – The Maiden Heist - Joes
Samantha Morton – The Messenger - Joes
Blanca Portillo—Broken Embraces - Colleens
Stine Stengade—Flame & Citron - Colleens
Sari Lennick - A Serious Man - Donnas
Julianne Moore - A Single Man - Donnas
Paulina Gaiton - Sin Nombre - Donnas

Despite an emerging 4 frontrunners who really knows with this category. Mimi Kennedy and Leonie Benesch look solid but it's hard to say anything more than that.

Best Original Screenplay
Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Abdel Raouf Dafri, Nicolas Peufaillit - A Prophet - Drews, Joes, Colleens, Donnas
Duncan Jones, Nathan Parker - Moon - Drews, Joes, Donnas
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen - A Serious Man - Drews, Joes
Adam Elliot - Mary and Max - Drews, Colleens
Michael Haneke - The White Ribbon - Drews, Donnas
Mark Boal – The Hurt Locker - Joes, Donnas
Cary Fukunaga—Sin Nombre - Colleens, Donnas
Pedro Almodovar – Broken Embraces - Joes
Jane Campion—Bright Star - Colleens
Lars Anderson and Ole Christian Madsen—Flame & Citron - Colleens

Surprisingly A Prophet's screenplay was the only one everyone agreed on and Moon has probably secured a nom with 3 notices. Otherwise just about all the choices seem possible, I'm guessing A Serious Man and Mary and Max will make appearances and I wouldn't be surprised if Flame & Citron creeps in either.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Tony Roche - In the Loop - Drews, Joes, Colleens, Donnas
Scott Z. Burns - The Informant! - Drews, Joes, Colleens, Donnas
Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach - Fantastic Mr. Fox - Drews, Joes, Colleens, Donnas
Peter Straughan - The Men Who Stare at Goats - Drews, Joes, Colleens
Dave Eggers, Spike Jonze - Where the Wild Things Are - Drews, Joes, Donnas
Tom Ford--A Single Man - Colleens, Donnas

I'm guessing Tom Ford's film will be the odd (single) man out come dolphin time.